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I'm envious....wish they were rolling out faster here but some ramping up seems to be happening at least.  We can beat this thing!!  Two front-line health care workers here have died from covid just recently, not to mention the hundreds of elderly so this cannot come fast enough!

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This is such a touchy subject because no one can begrudge first responders and healthcare workers their vaccine. However, as of 12/30/20 the CDC posted the following: (I've included the CDC's 2017-2018 Flu Estimates)

 

1504969708_ScreenShot2021-01-06at12_01_00PM.thumb.png.d565c2e2827521d435fafc26d1e75924.png

The people who need this vaccine the most, seem to be the last ones getting it...

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Not to belittle the seriousness of this virus, and it is serious, but, I particularly like the title of the left stats.  "involving covid-19 deaths".  If the CDC hadn't juggled the numbers, and been forthright with stats, the number of deaths caused by the virus would have been far fewer than reported.  If you were involved in an automobile accident and they tested the corpse for the virus and found it, it was listed as a covid death.  Admitted by the head of the CDC Fochi.  That being said, I do hope they get a handle on it soon because it's caused nothing but heartache for everyone.  

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I would highly doubt, unless someone could show me proof of such, that:  "If you were involved in an automobile accident and they tested the corpse for the virus and found it, it was listed as a covid death."

 

Personally, this sounds like a regurgitated/unresearched conspiracy type of statement that just keeps being repeated until someone believes it to be true.  Lots of that going around these days.

 

Case in point....what you posted and said "Fochi" (sic) posted are exact opposites...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-death-overcount-anthony-fauci

 

Having a brother-in-law who's mother died from complications "involving" covid, we are living this.  She beat the actual virus, but it destroyed so much of her body she died of kidney failure a month later.

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4 hours ago, CentralTexBBQ said:

This is such a touchy subject because no one can begrudge first responders and healthcare workers their vaccine. However, as of 12/30/20 the CDC posted the following: (I've included the CDC's 2017-2018 Flu Estimates)

 

1504969708_ScreenShot2021-01-06at12_01_00PM.thumb.png.d565c2e2827521d435fafc26d1e75924.png

The people who need this vaccine the most, seem to be the last ones getting it...

 

I think determining WHO gets it is a very touchy and subjective thing too.  There is just a lot more to it than age.  Based on my personal history and education with math and statistics, I'd prefer to see the 15-44 year olds getting it first.  

 

https://deanyeong.com/survivorship-bias/

 

Try applying that logic to this problem and you might change your mind about who should be getting the vaccines first.

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5 hours ago, daninpd said:

Let us know how it feels.  There was only one shot I got in the Army, think it might have been Yellow Fever, that was a doozy.

 

It feels about like a flu shot.  It's a little tender at the injection site.  I haven't had any side effects beyond that.

 

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3 hours ago, John Setzler said:

 

I think determining WHO gets it is a very touchy and subjective thing too.  There is just a lot more to it than age.  Based on my personal history and education with math and statistics, I'd prefer to see the 15-44 year olds getting it first.  

 

https://deanyeong.com/survivorship-bias/

 

Try applying that logic to this problem and you might change your mind about who should be getting the vaccines first.

 

I'm sorry, I fail to see any correlation. Bias has nothing to do with the science tht everyone tells us we should not be ignoring. We know who is dying- the elderly and those with comorbidities. The statistics I shared clearly show that the  typical flu season 3 to 4 months is just as fatal, and much more so in many cases for 45 and under than the 10 month or so cycle of COVID thus far. Prioritizing the 15-44 group seems to me to be a far greater example of the survivorship bias.

Edited by CentralTexBBQ
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32 minutes ago, CentralTexBBQ said:

 

I'm sorry, I fail to see any correlation. Bias has nothing to do with the science tht everyone tells us we should not be ignoring. We know who is dying- the elderly and those with comorbidities. The statistics I shared clearly show that the  typical flu season 3 to 4 months is just as fatal, and much more so in many cases for 45 and under than the 10 month or so cycle of COVID thus far. Prioritizing the 15-44 group seems to me to be a far greater example of the survivorship bias.

 

I sorta see it the opposite way.  I'm looking at it from all points of view, but this point of view says let's vaccinate the people who are spreading the disease.  When you consider the number of infections found in assisted living facilities, they are significantly HIGH and the mortality rate is also very high at the same time.  Those people aren't getting infected because they went to Walmart without a mask.  They are getting infected by the employees coming and going from the facility as well as people coming in and out to visit them.  

 

For what it's worth, I also don't believe there are very many relevant comparisons between the Flu and Covid-19.  How would you compare Covid to the Flu for THIS season?  I work in a hospital and we are seeing little to no flu this season.  People have stared doing simple things in their lives that will keep them clear of the flu.  Most of those things are also adequate to keep you clear of Covid.  The problem is that the flu is not as contagious as Covid.  One person who has Covid is more likely to infect more people that one who has the flu (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52473523). 

 

From CDC:

 

"While COVID-19 and flu viruses are thought to spread in similar ways, COVID-19 is more contagious among certain populations and age groups than flu. Also, COVID-19 has been observed to have more superspreading events than flu. This means the virus that causes COVID-19 can quickly and easily spread to a lot of people and result in continuous spreading among people as time progresses."

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm#:~:text=While COVID-19 and flu,more superspreading events than flu.

 

If the two virii had similar transmissibility properties, those number comparisons would be more relevant.  But even at that, Why does it make any sense to compare Covid to the Flu?  Let's just look at the COVID numbers.  Covid has been killing people all year long and not just during a 'flu season.'  It does appear to be more aggressively spreading during cooler/colder weather months, which also makes sense.  

 

In the long run, the answer is to provide vaccines for everyone who wants one.  In the short term, we should vaccinate the appropriate people first and have the rest stay on lockdown until vaccines are available.  

 

I don't know what the RIGHT answer is.  I just like to look at all the possibilities and juggle in my pea brain which one might be the best answer.

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thanks for the discussion: much appreciated. I anticipated that there wouldn't be much of a flu season this year actually- despite the prognostications. This flu season is an outlier because- either due to the ways in which deaths are being counted or the design of the pathogen, you cannot find a year without significant deaths from the flu. The comparision is not that COVID is like the flu, nor regarding the spread, methods of transmission or the respective contagiousness of one versus the other. It's on it's impact in the general population.

 

The spread is irrelevant if those who are unduly affected are immunized. If the people actually dying are treated- let the thing run it's course because what the charts show is that over a much longer period of time (perhaps 3x as long), it is far less fatal in the age group we're discussing.

 

I saw a study a few months ago of 200,000 college students who had acquired the disease with no deaths and a minuscule amount of hospitizations and an extremely large contingent of non-symptomatics among them. If after immunizations- COVID is still going among 'the youth' and no one is dying or being hospitalized- isn't that battle won?

 

In my mind yes...

 

Edited by CentralTexBBQ
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10 hours ago, CentralTexBBQ said:

thanks for the discussion: much appreciated. I anticipated that there wouldn't be much of a flu season this year actually- despite the prognostications. This flu season is an outlier because- either due to the ways in which deaths are being counted or the design of the pathogen, you cannot find a year without significant deaths from the flu. The comparision is not that COVID is like the flu, nor regarding the spread, methods of transmission or the respective contagiousness of one versus the other. It's on it's impact in the general population.

 

The spread is irrelevant if those who are unduly affected are immunized. If the people actually dying are treated- let the thing run it's course because what the charts show is that over a much longer period of time (perhaps 3x as long), it is far less fatal in the age group we're discussing.

 

I saw a study a few months ago of 200,000 college students who had acquired the disease with no deaths and a minuscule amount of hospitizations and an extremely large contingent of non-symptomatics among them. If after immunizations- COVID is still going among 'the youth' and no one is dying or being hospitalized- isn't that battle won?

 

In my mind yes...

 

 

 

I still don't understand why you have chosen to compare this to the flu.  What difference does it make how Covid compares to the Flu in terms of impact to the general population?  I am assuming you are trying to make some sort of statement by making this comparison but I just can't figure out what that statement is.  Are you trying to say that the flu is more or less lethal that Covid?  If so, why is that relevant?  If you are making the point that covid is 'far less fatal in the age group we're discussing' i still don't really draw the correlation.  You could make similar comparisons to any number of other diseases.  

 

"either due to the ways in which deaths are being counted"

 

I don't believe this is widespread or the norm.  I have seen a couple odd documentations of it but extrapolating that to be a widespread norm might be a little assertive.  

 

And as for your college student study, if they had been vaccinated can you make further assumptions that less old people would have died because they got infected by one of those young people?   That college student study would mirror a HUGE part of the population of the country.  MOST people who get covid are asymptomatic and not hospitalized.  The battle could be WON by approaching this from either direction.  

 

I'm not saying its wrong to vaccinate those who are most likely to die form it first.  I'm just trying to shed some light on the possibility of an alternative approach.  There is usually more than one way to skin a cat.  

 

 

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It may be surprising but I actually have a few friends in the Medical profession.  My Dr has treated 450 Covid cases.

He is not taking the vaccine.  My Mom's PA in the nursing home is not taking the vaccine.  I asked them why and 

they just smile, close their eyes and slowly shake their heads.  I don't know what to do????

 

My Mom is 90 and tested positive for Covid and all she got was really tired and sleepy for 4 days.  No aches,

no pains, no cough, no temp, nothing.  But all she did was sleep.  Quit eating, too. Lost 6 lbs.

 

My Dr who has treated 450 cases said none of the 9 nurses and 5 staff that work in his urgent care has

tested positive for Covid. Of course, they are wearing masks.  He said they use coffee grounds for the smell testing.

He also said the majority of people who go through the disease get extremely tired.  Extreme fatigue is their only

symptom.  He said if you get worse, you will have muscle aches and pains.  He said temp is a foo-foo and not a predictor.

He said in his office using the most accurate test (?) that 40% of those that test positive have no symptoms whatsoever.

Some of the ones testing positive only lose their sense of smell and/or taste but it may stay gone for quite a while.

 

Go figure?????

 

Just pointing out a few facts (I think) unless I am being lied to.

 

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I think we are starting to get into the weeds and splitting hairs about who gets the shot and why, and who should be first in line. All i'll say is the ones who take cre of us when were sick SHOULD be first. Ok i'll get off the soap box . A few comments 

1: Thank you John for working in a hospital

2: Looking at your arm John you have to get in the sun or a tanning booth. Last time i saw an arm that pale was on a count with pointy fangs 

3 Now that you got it i guess we can have a bbq at your house 

4 Everyone out there be safe 

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